In July, the Tianjiao market has a promising future.
it has been nearly a year since the massive delivery event of ru0407 contract last year. The current position of ru0507 main contract is 17912 hands, which is far from the 736054 hand position at the peak of 407 contract last year. Last year, for the Bulls who dared to do more on the pressure of huge inventory in the 407 contract, the rising crude oil price seems to be the only reason to support the bulls in fundamentals. Indeed, the price of crude oil actually supports the price of chemical synthetic rubber, and synthetic rubber and natural rubber can replace each other to a certain extent. However, it is obvious that this positive factor has been overused. We can clearly see from the continuous comparison chart between NYMEX's crude oil trend and Shanghai rubber market that Shanghai rubber was artificially pulled to the fifth wave of the bull market and quickly went to failure when crude oil was still in the starting stage of the rising main wave; In this way, when crude oil reached the strongest fifth wave, HuJiao could only struggle in vain at the bottom. It is said that many people who succeeded in closing positions in the 407 contract are still worried about selling glue because of the important and clear functions of the experimental machine. Indeed, compared with the mature and stable trading practices abroad, our trading practices are just a little superficial, and we emphasize too much the cruel side of the so-called zero sum game, either you die or I die. Closing positions and abandoning plates have become the most commonly used operating practices of the main force. In 2003, the most dynamic generation of "Tianjiao", which is considered to have international pricing power, only knew how to shoot eagles, and rationality was replaced by wildness. As a result, the varieties dominated by the trading practices that always try to eliminate counterparties can only be abandoned by more and more well-known market investors
can the new ru0507 contract be broken? Although the contract is in the peak season of rubber cutting and facing the pressure of new rubber Yu Wei pointed out to be listed, from the spot market, the average transaction price of SCR5 (No. 5 standard rubber) is about 12650 yuan/ton. Compared with the spot price of 13652 yuan/ton at the highest price of 0407 contract last year, Shanghai rubber is obviously strongly supported by the spot price at the current price, With the rubber enterprise "ocean clearing" company team planning to launch a new round of procurement of this system industry from the coastline of the San Francisco Bay area within a few weeks, and the recent rumors of IRCO (International Rubber Union) Limited production and price increases, the spot price of Tianjiao is still expected to rise. Technically, the current price of ru0507 contract is not far from the trend line support formed by the low point in 2003 and the low point at the beginning of this year. Therefore, if there can be a matching position in this price range and break through this range, it is also possible to form a wave of rise again
on the whole, we believe that there is still much room for Tianjiao's July contract to be active, and the future performance depends more on the recovery of investor confidence and capital inflows
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