The hottest July 29 PE daily review swept away the

2022-10-12
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July 29 PE daily review: brush off the flashy August plastic market army

PE inventory

on July 29, both petrochemical companies made efforts to adjust prices. The pricing and sales strategy after high settlement was affirmed by some small traders with goods in hand. At present, the atmosphere of the trade market is relatively warm, and the hype mentality of the recipients is clear, while the attitude of the downstream small and medium-sized factories is still relatively warm and ambiguous, and there are still not a few onlookers. Large factories are still in a step-by-step manner, taking what should be taken and putting it into production immediately after taking it. Those who should not be taken will never be tempted to enter the market for speculation

for the current plastic market, there are the following positive points: 1. International crude oil rose for 9 consecutive days, which greatly stimulated the market mentality. 2. Petrochemical price adjustment and high settlement strategy are good news for contract users and small traders with goods in hand. 7. Pay attention to the movement of machines, handle with care, and pay attention to packaging and shock resistance during transportation Beginning to have the intention to attract a large number of goods and reluctant sellers. 3. The LLDPE futures market was trading enthusiastically and the hype atmosphere was very strong. 4. The above three points are all reactions made when the market is generally optimistic about the northern agricultural film market in August

there are also some more bearish points: the imported materials in June are the largest amount of plastics imported into China this year. Some market participants disapprove of the price adjustment of domestic petrochemicals and believe that the future market is still weak, and if we persist in supporting the market, the consequences will be serious. In addition, the main topics of the China US Strategic Economic and economic dialogue being held in the United States are the exchange rate and treasury bonds, and the fluctuation of the exchange rate is a more sensitive topic for import enterprises. I judge that the future market of RMB will continue to be stable under the state regulation, while the US dollar will continue to depreciate. There will be a fierce competition for the position of the US dollar index at 77, with a general trend of small rise and big fall

based on the above positive and negative views, let's take linearity as an example to make an evaluation: at the end of July, the spot market basically remained above 10000. In August, it is predicted that there will be a fierce trading in the market, and the overall market price trend will be controlled between yuan/ton. As for the futures market, there is a lot of room for jump, and it is judged that the price will fluctuate between at the beginning of the month. In addition, by the way, if the market is expected to strengthen in August, Petrochemical's large ethylene devices that are ready to move are likely to accelerate into the plastic market and muddy the water. At present, Sinopec Fulian has some linear point test machine materials, which are put into the market to ask the way, and the probability of other genuine products in the later stage is not small

I. opening summary

yesterday's inventory: market quotation is high, opening low

today's highlights: market quotation continues to be high, petrochemical inventory and social resources are not much, and the market is still price free

the exhibition idea of tomorrow's focus is quite good: environmental protection situation, petrochemical ex factory price trend, market mentality and market price trend, external market situation

II. Upstream raw materials

crude oil futures:

crude oil futures closed slightly higher on Monday. The rise of the stock market slowed down, but the recent upward trend has not been destroyed, which pushed the crude oil market up for the ninth consecutive trading day. Light sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.38 a barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract on the ICE Futures Exchange rose 49 cents, or 0.7%, to $70.81 a barrel. Crude oil futures once approached $69 in the session, but affected by the trend of the stock market, they operated near the previous closing price for most of the time. The crude oil market takes the stock market as a window to understand the world economic situation, because the world economic situation will determine the future oil demand. Most market participants are still skeptical about the recent rise in crude oil prices, believing that there is no sign that crude oil demand is picking up, and there is no sign that supply is beginning to tighten. Although U.S. crude oil inventories decreased for seven consecutive weeks, they were still 16% higher than the same period last year, and distillate oil inventories were at a 24-year high. The Schork report, an energy newsletter, said that the current oil price is at a high level, which is mainly driven by speculative buying in the short term. Although corporate profits have improved and the real estate market may have bottomed out, this does not mean that the unemployment rate will not continue to rise. Analysts place their hopes for a recovery in oil demand on developing countries. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group believe that the economic growth rate of large emerging economies led by Brazil, India and China has exceeded expectations, which may help alleviate the global oversupply of distillate oil. In August, the settlement price of rbob gasoline futures rose 1.88 cents, or 1%, to $1.9347 per gallon. The settlement price of heating oil futures in August rose 1.53 cents, or 0.9%, to $1.7966 per gallon

naphtha:

Asian naphtha CFR Japan closed higher by $9.63 to $609.88/ton. Due to the good production profits, the expectation that more and more petrochemical manufacturers will buy naphtha in stock has boosted the market atmosphere. Taiwan's CNPC was out of the market for two months due to the failure of its steam cracking unit, but it is expected that the commencement will increase, so it will soon resume the procurement of full distillate oil shipments delivered in September

European naphtha closed up $7.75/ton to $592.5/ton in northwest Europe today. It is expected that there will be too much supply in the spot market to support the out of stock Asian market. It is reported that the US market has purchase intention. However, traders said that the demand of conciliators was still dominant in the market

ethylene:

the price of ethylene in Asia rose. Today's closing price: CFR Northeast Asia CFR Southeast Asia (USD/ton)

Iran's supply tightening again and the rebound in naphtha prices jointly pushed the price of porous ethylene in the center of Asian B mold core and mold core base higher on Monday. The 1.32 million ton steam cracking unit of jam petrochemical in asaruye, Iran was shut down last week and will remain until early August. The 1million ton steam cracking unit of aryasasol company in the same place was shut down in the second half of this month due to the maintenance of upstream natural gas equipment. The unstable start-up of Iran's steam cracking unit led to the Asian market only last week, and the utilization and supply of materials in China's wind power market are being actively discussed. However, the previous shutdown is likely to lead to another tightening of ethylene supply in Asia, especially in the first half of August

a trader estimated that the Iranian market would not supply shipments in the first half of August, and the supply volume in the second half of the same month was only about one order. In addition, Asian naphtha prices rebounded to $600/ton CFR Japan last Friday. This makes local manufacturers unwilling to sell spot ethylene at the level of FOB Northeast Asia/Southeast Asia lower than 1050 US dollars/ton. The sales intention of traders is 1070 US dollars/ton CFR Northeast Asia or above. Due to the tight supply of Iranian goods and the rising price of naphtha, traders are likely to maintain their quotations for the time being, waiting for end users to raise their bids according to the market. However, as of Monday, end users were still unwilling to raise their bid price to the level above US $1000/ton CFR Northeast Asia/Southeast Asia. Due to the large price difference between the buyer and the seller, no transaction was reported today

III. ex factory price dynamics

PetroChina: general rise of PetroChina

Sinopec: stable

other petrochemicals: stable

note: the source of this reprint is indicated. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming the authenticity of its content

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